Good and comprehensive article. In Kenya Corruption and tribalism has been embroiled together that they seem inseparable. Political leaders in the country are incompetent to govern, and hide themselves behind tribal lines, to commit crimes against Humanity and get away with it. The president is weak and Raila is a power hungry individual and protect some of the major perpetrators of the 2007 election violence who are mostly government ministers and senior officials in the current government who seem “untouchable”. Kenya is a simmering volcano waiting to erupt, and if these powerful individuals facing serious allegations against humanity are not prosecuted by the ICC, then a Genocide worse than the one in Rwanda is about to happen.

This is a candid analysis on the situation in Kenya where tribalism and politics of hatred is the order of the day.
Someone once said that maybe we should have been left to fight it out a little longer during the post election violence. It seems we didn’t learn any lessons from the botched elections.
Politicians are talking of reforms and a new constitution but given the deep mistrust amongst ourselves, I am highly doubtful if we will have a new constitution this year.
Correction: Najib Balala was the former mayor of the coastal city of Mombasa and not Nairobi as has been reported in this article.
George Gopal,
Nairobi

This is a candid analysis on the situation in Kenya where tribalism and politics of hatred is the order of the day.
Someone once said that maybe we should have been left to fight it out a little longer during the post election violence. It seems we didn’t learn any lessons from the botched elections.
Politicians are talking of reforms and a new constitution but given the deep mistrust amongst ourselves, I am highly doubtful if we will have a new constitution this year.
Correction: Najib Balala was the former mayor of the coastal city of Mombasa and not Nairobi as has been reported in this article.
George Gopal,
Nairobi
georgegop@yahoo.com

A Common phrase pops up when I think of the politics,corruption et al in Kenya,dont hate the player hate the game.It is the sad reality of a totally broken system.
How do we move on from this predicament? Recent protests were a good indicator then what?

Thank you for your excellent article, Fragile Kenya, the best that I have read on that country for some time. One expects no less from the world's best print news source.

Just for the record (and not necessarily for publication in Comments) permit me as Executive Officer of the Kenya Independence Celebrations Directorate at the time to note that independence came at midnight on 12 December 1963. Queen Elizabeth II technically remained Sovereign, with my boss Jomo Kenyatta as prime Minister and Malcolm MacDonald metamorphosing from Governor to Governor General.

Exactly one year later Kenya became a republic within the Commonwealth, with Kenyatta as President (and MacDonald as British High Commissioner). I saw the two men develop a wary mutual respect, even friendship.

They each appreciated the importance of theatre and symbolism in politics. On both occasions, for the ceremonial transfer of power, Jomo wore his African beaded cap, carrying a fly-whisk as scepter. For his part Malcolm, the least protocol-minded of men, dressed in plumed helmet and full gubernatorial regalia. The Kenyans loved it!

Pretty good analysis of our country. It all comes down to leadership, really. We have many people of Obama's age who have the requisite qualities - but three things stand in the way. First, these potential leaders need to step forward and rally around like-minded people (I challenge current CEO's for instance to consider this possibility). Secondly, we must find a way of breaking the hold that the current crop of politicians have on the country (I need ideas here, and violence is not the option). And thirdly, we must find a way to prepare Kenyan voters to put aside their tribal differences and unite around the ideal candidate(s) when they finally step forward (education, and religion are good channels to begin this process). Let's begin this discussion in earnest.

Perhaps there really should be a different kind of democracy in tribal countries - something like a federated tribal system that is open about loyalties. In the end a proper democracy would be better - but just hoping for a hero may not be enough.

CORRECTION

Najib Balala is a former mayor of Mombasa....not Nairobi!

Kenya's problem has everything to do with Presidents who are corrupt and use the weak state institutions to steal and protect themselves and their cronies. What we need is a resolute President who is not inclined to steal and who will strengthen the courts, police and anti-corruption agencies by according them political will right from the top to fight graft.

Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki were never going to do this. They all came from the same pilfering political culture. Uhuru Kenyatta will be no different from his father (mtoto wa nyoka ni nyoka-the child of a snake is a snake).

Only people like Raila Odinga and James Orengo, who have spent their entire lives fighting this system, can bring change, defeat corruption and build Kenya into a modern and prosperous state.

We need our own Lee Kuan Yew (NOT OBAMA. Obama has not changed the US).

In 7 years Obama can take the job and be President of Kenya

For the record, Najib Balala was the Mayor of the Port city of Mombasa and not Nairobi. Great analysis.

How I wish more Kenyans read the Economist! Our problems would be half-way solved. The 2012 elections will test Kenya than nothing else ever has. The coming election will need not only to be free and fair; they also should bring forth genuine reformers to leadership. What we Kenyans need most today is an authentic, democratic and dynamic political elite.
Kibaki held much hope for all of us in 2002, but his tribal tendencies immediately after the election undermined his huge national constituency, setting in motion the sentiments that contributed to post-election violence.
Raila was and remains popular because of his unprecedented connection with all Kenyans. He also has shown decisiveness on dynamite political matters, as the suspensions have shown. In fact, he is the first Kenyan leader to take corruption by the horns, regardless of potentially huge political consequences. He's also done it in the Mau forest reclamation effort.
Such actions are helping in his growing influence, even among Kikuyus who voted massively against him in 2007. But unlike 2007, when he inevitably needed all kind of support, from Ruto and corrupt former Kanu loyalists,he should build a vibrant party bureaucracy in ODM, which due to its national appeal and history is necessary to the building of ideology-based politics.
Unlike PNU, which was a short-term, tribally-crafted outfit, ODM can propagate an issue-oriented political machine. It is a tall order, but one worth attempting.
John Onyando,
Nairobi.

Get your facts right before you start publishing: Mr. Balala was former mayor of Mombasa, not Nairobi.

I was girding up my loins to criticize 'The Economist' for what I deemed to be an overly ethnic toned assessment, but then I refrained because their analysis is largely right this time. A little scary yes, but largely right.

But the main question is this: Why has Mr. Odinga apparently failed to bring about political and economic reforms as the economist asserts? Well, its because he is not in control of the government. Consider this: The PM suspends two ministers because of high corruption in their dockets of, and within 4 hours the president reinsatates them. And the reinstatement stands, showing clearly who's in charge.

Why, you wonder, why would the president do that? Your guess is as good as mine. If that suspension had been allowed to stand, it would have heralded an new era of fightng corruption from the near-top where it resides.

Mr. Odinga is obviously trying. The Kenyan President however does not seem to care about anything. I'm yet to see any attempt by the President to ease the slowly rising tension in the country. The kenyan problem is purely and squarely a question of poor leadership on the president's part.

Like the statement implying Balala was the mayor of Nairobi, this analysis is DEAD WRONG. Kenya will have a new constitution by the end of this year and this will signal a new start. For the longest time Kenya has had skeletons in it's kitchen cabinet but 2007-2008 made them tumble down... The country is, and will deal with these skeletons.
When they say "run to the hills!" that's the time to sow your seed. Watch Kenya rise!

As I sit here in Nairobi, I think about all this "wasted" potential and all I can say to Kenyans is, have faith and pray that no violence visits this beautiful country again!

A very well thought out and indicative article - with a faith that the Memory of Thomas Omboya may well prove to be the glue that holds the fragile and tenous polity toegether. I Just though that you last paragraph may have been a little too apathetic as to the Keynans resolving this issue.

Your analysis is right on target. However, I disagree with Onyando who wished more Kenyans read the Economist. What is covered in this report is not new. On any given day the Kenyan press does a pretty descent job of covering the ills of Kenya. The problems ailing Kenya is for Kenyans to find a cure and reading the Economist is the last cure anybody would even wish on us. The Economist does a good job of serving its interest and alas, it is never the same as Wanjiku's.

'we need our own Obama?' Trust me, Obama winning the Kenyan presidency would have been more difficult than winning the American one, resuscitating the American economy and ending the middle east conflicts. Why you may ask? He's a Luo. Enough said.

The culture of impunity is one of the key points, and I am surprised that it hasn't been discussed very much in the comments page.

There have been several ministers removed from their posts after damning evidence connected them to one scandal or another. Yet only a few short months later, they were back in a new ministry post with virtually a blank slate. One of the most admirable features of Kenya (not discussed in the article) is the free press, which exposes these scandals and offers varying opinions and good analysis. Still, with the volume of issues that crop up, many Kenyans have a short memory for past scandals, with only a few voices howling in dissent as dishonest politicians are returned to plum positions.

In my view, a concerted effort to make easily accessible files for public consumption that chronicle the misdeeds of politicians would be a huge stride. For example, let us suppose that William Ruto's removal had stood. He likely would have been nominated for another government position by mid-2010. When his nomination rose to the dock, if people could see a list showing his past sins (a tainted maize scandal a year ago was one of the most serious on a long list), there would likely be a public outcry. Currently, a few people raise alarm bells, but any removal of Ruto would certainly have been temporary (unless, of course, the removal were related to trials surrounding the post-election violence, in which case, the removal would only probably be temporary).

There are some bright spots in Kenyan politics to be sure. Aaron Ringera, the ineffectual leader of the Kenyan Anti-Corruption Commission, had his renomination blocked as unconstitutional (a saga which was slightly less exciting than Indonesia's anti-corruption commission, and apparently merited virtually no coverage in The Economist as opposed to the gory detail that came out of Indonesia). Major General Hussein Ali was finally removed from his post atop the police department after an extensive list of scandals (though I believe he is now comfortably running the post offices). Martha Karua is perhaps one of the greatest figures in Kenyan politics, standing up to the government, and refusing to be complicit in shady dealings. She resigned from her post atop the Justice Ministry after it became clear that the government was shifting power away from her and towards more pliable ministers.